Latest Market Update

DC As Anywhere, USA: What The Housing Market Looks Like Without Government Buttressing

Washington DC is running a real-time test of what its housing market looks like with a stripped-down foundation of federal support. The region has lost about 62,100 federal jobs since January 2025, a 16.5% drop to the lowest level since 1990, and the District’s federal workforce shrank by a net 22,356 jobs (gross 30,815) in 2025 alone, and by 14.4% from January 2025 to April 2026.

Data for the week ending November 1 shows a market behaving a lot like Anywhere, USA, but with a lower level of listing activity:

	DC, 3 Weeks	Year ago	Change	DC %	USA %
New contracts / pending sales	361	412	−51	−12.4%	−15.9%
Showings	5,550	6,716	−1,166	−17.4%	n/a
New listings	611	673	−62	−9.2%	−4.0%
Active listings (Nov 1)	2,909	2,861	+48	+1.7%	+2.2%

Footnote: DC figures are the three weeks ending Nov 1 (active listings: week ending Nov 1). USA figures are courtesy of Redfin’s four week data ending Oct 25.

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What Makes A Market?

A housing market is a mechanism that converts local incomes, local jobs and borrowing costs into offers on homes. In most American metro areas, that mechanism runs on a private-sector economy: when hiring slows or rates rise, buyers disappear and sellers cut prices. Washington DC has long been the exception. The seat of the United States government and the contractor, legal and lobbying ecosystem built around it gave the District a demand floor that Dallas, Phoenix and Columbus never had.

But that ecosystem has been made unstable. Washington DC’s real estate market was unprepared for the rocky market the nation as a whole is experiencing atop the seismic disruption the DCMA has singularly experienced.

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The Stress Test Is Creating Cracks

A Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data found the region lost about 62,100 federal jobs between January 2025 and January 2026, a 16.5% drop that leaves the federal workforce at its lowest level since the series began in 1990. Across all sectors, the DCMA lost 103,900 jobs over the same year, a 3.1% decline (BLS, not seasonally adjusted). In the District itself, preliminary BLS data for September 2026 show an unemployment rate of 5.6% and total nonfarm employment down 3.5% from a year earlier, with government employment at all levels down 9.0%.

That’s a much stronger shock to Washington’s income base than inflation and a typical rate-driven slowdown layered on top of a 30-year fixed mortgage at roughly 7.2%.

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Weekly Data Says The Buyer Pool Is Smaller, Not Gone

Showings are the best weekly measure of how many people are seriously shopping. In the week ending November 1, DC recorded 1,761 showings, down 17.0% from 2,121 a year earlier, and 5,550 over the last three weeks, down 17.4% from 6,716. Last year’s comparison weeks fall during the federal shutdown, and Bloomberg reported DC showings down 8.5% from a year earlier that month, so a further double-digit drop is a genuine loss of audience.

Contracts fell by less: 361 over the three weeks against 412, down 12.4%, compared with 15.9% for pending sales nationally. Measured as contracts per 100 showings, DC converted at 6.5 over the last three weeks versus 6.1 a year earlier. In the week ending Nov 1, there were 113 contracts vs 1,761 showings, which is 6.4 per 100, against 6.2 a year ago. The number of buyers out was down 17%, but the buyers who are out are converting at the same rate. The pattern is consistent with a smaller pool of buyers who convert at a slightly higher rate than a year ago: pre-approved and rate-aware, or cash in hand, and writing offers when something fits. That’s what a market with fewer casual participants looks like.

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Where DC Behaves Like Anywhere, USA and Where It Doesn’t

It behaves like Anywhere, USA in three ways. First, demand is now rate-sensitive: the same $500,000 loan costs about $354 more per month than a year ago, and the same monthly payment borrows roughly 10.4% less. Second, contracts track the nation: DC new contracts are down 12.4% over three weeks, against 15.9% for pending sales nationally. Third, the weak segment is the one most exposed to first-time buyers and tighter budgets. Condos and co-ops ended September at 0.12 pending contracts per active listing, half the five-year September average of 0.23, and at a stunning 8.19 months of supply, the highest in nearly ten years (new condo supply rose to 15.1 months in Q4 2017), and up from 6.61 a year earlier (the five-September average is 5.49). Townhouses and detached homes were at 0.30 and 0.31; holding up better, but both still sit about 20% below their five-September average of 0.37.

It doesn’t behave like Anywhere, USA in its condo sector, or like its DCMA neighbors. DC’s MLS-listed active listings are up just 1.7% from a year ago, close to the nation’s 2.2%, while the DCMA is up 22.0%. Only 5.5% of DC MLS listings carry a price cut, against 8.5% across the DCMA. Year to date through September, the DC median sold price was $670,500, versus $670,000 last year, much like the nation’s median sale price, down 0.1%. Most markets that lose a major income source see inventory build and prices slide. DC’s MLS-listed inventory is building mainly in condos, where active listings are up 7.3% and September’s 8.19 months of supply compares with 4.8 months for homes nationally; detached plus townhouse active listings are down 6.1% from last year (1,304 vs. 1,389, my calculation from SmartCharts figures).

Federal employment is down sharply but maintains a slim foundation, and a private economy of legal and other professional services, health care, education and organizations sits underneath it. The federal and contracting shock showed up first in the entry-level and mid-priced condo market, while higher-income private-sector households have kept the townhouse and single-family segments moving and median prices appearing healthy.

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Hidden Inventory

Buyers and sellers should know that a large pool of off-MLS inventory exists alongside the listings Bright MLS reports on. As of November 3, 2026, Bright showed 2,909 active listings in DC. Off-market listings in the Compass network, plus unsold new-construction units held by developers, add up to about the same number again.

Inventory I tracked, Nov. 3, 2026	Units
On the MLS: Bright active listings	2,909
Off-market listings: Compass network	1,477
Developer units: completed and selling	980
Developer units: under construction and selling	73
Developer units: under construction, not yet selling	338
Developer units: pre-construction	47
Total off-MLS (estimated)	2,915

That affects how to read the weekly and monthly reports. Bright doesn’t include off-market listings in its inventory figures. Showings on off-market listings are often set up by contacting the listing agent, so many may not register on the showing-app and lockbox data Bright uses for its showing counts. Developer units sell through sales and marketing firms and in-house sales teams, so that traffic usually doesn’t reach the MLS, either. That means inventory, showings and sales figures from the MLS show only part of the market. With nearly as many homes off-MLS as on it, and most of the developer inventory in condos, supply is likely deeper than the published numbers suggest, especially for condos.

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Forecast Through January 2027

Here are my projections:

• Midterm elections, particularly this one, matter more here than in most markets. The result shapes expectations about federal budgets, hiring, contracting and shutdown risk, and in DC, election results tend to change who works where. DC is also a heavily Democratic city, so optimism and pessimism about the market can swing with the outcome. Democrats are favored to win control of the House and have a shot at capturing majority in the Senate. Should they achieve a decisive win, market trajectory could reverse in early spring from its cooling trend toward a more typical DC market. Any effect would first be seen in showing numbers, and the level of activity would need to overcome the damper of 7.2%+ mortgage interest rates.
• New GSE condo financing rules will impact condo values and market prices. Mortgage loans with applications dated on or after January 4, 2027 must meet a higher reserve standard set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Buildings that fall short will not qualify for financing with a conventional loan, which narrows the buyer pool to cash buyers and lenders that keep loans on their own books, at higher rates and less favorable terms. I anticipate wider price gaps between well-funded and under-funded buildings, and boards raising fees and potentially calling for special assessments to catch up on reserve deficits and deferred maitenance, impacting both affordability and market value.
• Year-over-year comparisons may look different after mid-November. Last year’s comparison weeks fall during the federal shutdown, which ran to about November 12, so the base we measure against will shift once we pass that date.
• Prices stay roughly flat citywide, with a widening gap between home types. The citywide median is likely to stay near its current level through year-end, with condos under more pressure than townhouses and detached homes, and the gap between individual buildings growing as the reserve standard deadline approaches.
• Condo inventory keeps building. With forward-thinking sellers wishing to list before the new GSE reserve standard takes effect, condo supply may continue to rise through the end of the year, and pricing power will shift further toward buyers.
• Mortgage rates decide the pace. At about 7.2%, the market is in a holding pattern. A sustained move toward 6.5% would likely bring showings back faster than any other change.

What would change my mind: A drop in the 30-year rate of about a point or more; a clear, lasting bounce in showings after November 3; lenders finding workaround loan programs to address the January 4 standard; a rebound in federal hiring or a major contract award cycle; or, on the downside, DC unemployment rising well above the current 5.6%, or the share of listings with price cuts climbing above the DCMA’s.

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How To Buy And Sell In Today’s Market

Buyers: condos are where you have the greatest leverage, with more choice and room to negotiate on price and terms; also the greatest risk. Be sure to vet the association carefully and build generous contingency terms into offers. At a certain price point, single family is a safer investment. Well-priced turnkey homes may still draw some competition, so don’t expect many concessions on the choicest.

Sellers: price to the market. In a smaller buyer pool, the first two weeks matter most. A listing that sits risks becoming a cancellations statistic. Condition, presentation and a realistic list price are key. If you’re selling a condo, vet the association fully before listing. Provide as much information to prospective buyers as possible. Those associations that will fail to meet GSE requirements for reserves, deferred maintenance, or other issues will benefit from suggestions for financing alternatives. Pricing correctly for this deficit is vital.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is the DC housing market weakening because of federal job cuts?

Federal job cuts are a significant factor, with about 62,100 federal jobs lost in the region between January 2025 and January 2026. But mortgage rates near 7.2% are also reducing demand everywhere. The data suggests the weakness is most concentrated in condos and most visible in showing activity, while prices have largely held.

Are DC home prices falling in November 2026?

It’s too early in the month to pinpoint home price trends for November. In October, he DC median sold price was $670,500 year to date through September, versus $670,000 a year earlier. Weekly list-price medians swing with the mix of new listings and shouldn’t be read as a trend.

Is it a good time to buy a condo in Washington, DC?

Buyers have more leverage than they have had in years: condos and co-ops had 0.12 pending contracts per active listing in September, against a five-year September average of 0.23. Whether it’s a good time depends on your rate, your time horizon and the specific building.

How does the DC market compare with the wider DCMA market?

For the week ending November 1, DC city contracts were down 14.4% from a year ago, while the DCMA’s were down 18.4%. The DCMA has far more inventory, up 22.0%, compared with 1.7% in the city.