October 2, 2026
The Fed’s October Rate Hike Is Losing Altitude
The probability that the Fed leaves its target range unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00% moved the other way, today, from 35.8% a week ago to 82.8%.
Articles for tag: employment and fed rates, fed rate hikes, jobs report, jobs report and mortgage rates, latest jobs report, mortgage rates, PCE data, what the latest jobs report means for mortgage rates
September 24, 2026
The High-Level LLM DC Market Forecasting Shaggy Dog Story
I gave market data to one of OpenAI's highest-level reasoning models and asked it to build a 12-month probabilistic DC real estate market forecast.
September 21, 2026
The 5.9% Mortgage Rate Pipedream
A 5.9% 30-year mortgage rate is looking considerably more like a pipedream now than it did this spring. Fannie Mae’s September 2026 forecast now puts the average 30-year rate at 6.8% in the fourth quarter, followed by 6.7% throughout 2027.
